Trade balance

The Economic Consequences of the Peace secondary

Keynes argues Germany’s ability to pay annual reparations depends on trade surpluses, not assumptions of vastly higher future exports, and he frames payment as goods exports requiring a reduced import bill.

indemnity from Germany depend on the assumption that she is in a position to conduct in the future a vastly greater trade than ever she has had in the past. For the purpose of arriving at a figure it is of no great consequence whether payment takes the form of cash (or rather of foreign exchange) or is partly effected in kind (coal, dyes, timber, etc.), as contemplated by the Treaty. In any event, it is only by the …