HKB
supported (not only in this chapter but throughout my book) by the hope, possibly superstitious, that openness does good in the long run, even when it makes trouble at first.
So far, Reparation on a large scale has not been collected from Germany. So far, the Allies have not paid interest to the United States on what they owe. Our present troubles, when they are not attributable to the after–effects of war and the cyclical depression of trade, are due, therefore, not to the enforcement of these claims, but to the uncertainties of their possible enforcement. It follows, therefore, that merely to put off the problem will do us no good. That is what we have been doing for two years already. Even to reduce our Reparation demands to Germany’s maximum actual capacity and really force her to pay them, might make matters worse than they are. To write down inter–ally debts by half and then try to collect them, would be an aggravation, not a cure, of the existing difficulties. The solution, therefore, must not be one which tries to extract the last theoretical penny from everybody; its main object must be to set the Finance Ministers of every country a problem not incapable of wise solution over the next five years.
I. The Revision of the Treaty
The Reparation Commission have assessed the Treaty claims at 138 milliard gold marks, of which 132 milliards are for pensions and damage and 6 milliards for Belgian debt. They have not stated in what proportions the 132 milliards are divided between pensions and damages. My own assessment of the Treaty claims (p. 131 above) is 110 milliards, of which 74 milliards are for pensions and allowances, 30 milliards for damage and 6 milliards for Belgian debt.
The arguments of Chapter VI make it incumbent on those who are convinced by them to abandon as dishonorable the claims to pensions and allowances. This reduces the claims to 36 milliards, a sum which it may not be in our interest to exact in full, but which is probably within Germany’s theoretical capacity to pay.
Apart from clearing out of the way various clauses which are no longer operative or useful, and from terminating the occupation on conditions set forth below, I should limit my Revision of the Treaty to this simple stroke of the pen. Let the present assessment of 138 milliard gold marks be replaced by 36 milliard gold marks.
We are strictly entitled under the Armistice Terms to these 36 milliards; and if prudence recommends an abatement below that figure, such abatement can properly be made, on terms, by those and those only who are entitled to the claims. I estimate with some confidence that this sum of 36 milliards is divisible between the Allies about in the proportions shown in the table below.
The payment by Germany of 5 per cent interest and 1 per cent sinking fund on this total sum is not, in my judgment, theoretically impossible. But it could only be done by stimulating her export industries in a manner injurious and irritating to Great Britain, and by imposing on her Treasury a financial problem of such difficulty that it would tend to unsound finance and to weak, unstable Governments. Even though this payment is theoretically possible, I do not think that it is practically obtainable over a period of thirty years.
────────────────┬───────┬─────────────┬────── │Damage.│Belgian Debt.│Total. ────────────────┼───────┼─────────────┼────── British Empire │ 9 │ 2 │ 11 France │ 16 │ 2 │ 18 Belgium │ 3 │ .. │ 3 Italy │ 1 │ .. │ 1 United States │ .. │ 2 │ 2 Others │ 1 │ .. │ 1 ├───────┼─────────────┼────── │ 30 │ 6 │ 36 ────────────────┴───────┴─────────────┴──────