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A Revision of the Treaty

John Maynard Keynes · 1921-12 (King’s College, Cambridge; preface dated December 1921) primary

passage 29 of 109 · CHAPTER I > CHAPTER II (22/22)

with power, however, to reduce the rate temporarily to 25 per cent. It was estimated that the 30 per cent tax would bring in a revenue of 9.2 milliard marks.

[25] The same authority estimates that 85.6 of Upper Silesia’s zinc ore production and all the zinc smelting works fall to Poland. This is of some importance, since before the war Upper Silesia was responsible for 17 per cent of the total world production of zinc. Of the iron and steel production of the area 63 per cent falls to Poland. I am not in a position to check any of these figures. Some authorities ascribe a higher proportion of the coal to Poland.

[26] These are the figures according to the Polish authorities. But it is difficult to obtain accurate pre–war figures for an area which was not coterminous with any then existing State; and these totals have been questioned in detail by Dr. W. Schotte.

[27] See e.g., my controversy with M. Brenier in The Times.

[28] In The Economic Consequences of the Peace, p. 92 n., I wrote as follows: “The reader must be reminded in particular that the above calculations take no account of the German production of lignite.... I am not competent to speak on the extent to which the loss of coal can be made good by the extended use of lignite or by economies in its present employment; but some authorities believe that Germany may obtain substantial compensation for her loss of coal by paying more attention to her deposits of lignite.”

[29] That is to say, production in the middle of 1921 was at the rate of about 120,000,000 tons per annum. At that time the legal maximum price was 60 paper marks per ton (i.e., 5s. or less); so that the national profit on the output in terms of money cannot have been a very material amount.

[30] In order to secure the increased output the number of miners was increased much more than in proportion, namely from 59,000 in 1913 to 171,000 in the first half of 1921. As a result, the cost of production of lignite rose much faster than that of coal. Also since its calorific value is much less than that of coal per unit of weight (even when it is briquetted), it can only compete with coal, unless it is assisted by preferential freight rates, within a limited area in the neighborhood of the mines.

[31] At the Paris Conference of August 1921 Lord Curzon tried unavailingly to persuade France to abandon this illegal occupation. The so–called “Economic Sanctions” were raised on October 1, 1921. The occupation still continues, though both the above pretexts have now disappeared.

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A Revision of the Treaty · John Maynard Keynes · 1921