HKB
will not repent having set me the example of using a larger sized paper. If you are tired with my long letter, you only will be to blame for it.
It does not appear to me that we very materially differ in our ideas of the effects of the facility or difficulty of procuring food on the profits of stock. You say that I 'seem to think that the state of production from the land compared with the means necessary to make it produce is almost the sole cause which regulates the profit of stock and the means of advantageously employing capital.' This is a correct statement of my opinion, and not, as you have said in another part of your letter and which essentially differs from it, 'that it is the quantity of produce compared with the expense of production that determines profits.' You, instead of allowing the facility of obtaining food to be almost the sole cause of high profits, think it may be safely said to be the main cause, and also a difficulty of acquiring food the main cause of low profits. There appears to me to be very little difference in these statements. You infer that my doctrine is not correct because improvements may take place in agriculture or manufactures, because new leases may not be granted precisely at the time of the rise in the price of raw produce, and because the price of labour may not rise without delay in the same proportion. But improvements in agriculture or in machinery which shall facilitate or augment production will according to my proposition increase profits because 'it will augment production compared with the means necessary to that production.' The same may be said of the wages of labour not rising in the same proportion as the price of produce. As for old leases affecting the question, you will observe that in calculating the profits made by agriculture we must estimate leases at the value which they bear at the time of the calculation and not at the value agreed upon at an antecedent period. If the question were concerning the profits of a manufactory or distillery for example, we should calculate such profits according to the then value of barley, although a few individual distillers might have been so fortunate as to purchase their barley when it was 25 per cent cheaper. These points then are expressly allowed for in my proposition, and are by no means at variance with it. You add to your statement [']that in the interval between the two extremes (of high profits and low profits caused by facility or difficulty of procuring food) considerable variations may take place, and that practically no country was ever in such a state as not to admit of increase of profits on the land for a period of some duration, from the advanced price of raw produce.' I agree that variations will take place because the means of obtaining produce are not always equally expensive; and, if they should be, the produce itself may become more valuable, and in either case profits will vary. But even during these temporary variations the great cause, namely the accumulation of capital, may be paving the way for permanently diminished profits. It appears to me important to ascertain what the causes are which may occasion a rise in the price of raw produce, because the effects of a rise, on profits, may be diametrically opposite. A rise in the price of raw produce may be occasioned by a gradual accumulation of capital, which by creating new demands for labour may give a stimulus to population and consequently promote the cultivation or improvement of inferior lands; but this will not cause profits to rise but to fall, because not only will the rate of wages rise, but more labourers will be employed without affording a proportional return of raw produce. The whole value of the wages paid will be greater compared with the whole value of the raw produce obtained. A rise of raw produce may proceed from one or more bad seasons, which will undoubtedly increase profits because the price of produce would rise considerably more than in the proportion of the deficient quantity, and would therefore be much ahead of the price [sic] of production. An advanced price of raw produce may also proceed from a fall in the value of currency, which would raise the price of produce, for a time, more than it would wages, and would therefore raise profits. Both these you will allow are temporary causes, no way affecting the principle itself but merely disturbing it in its progress. Restrictions on importation of raw produce may cause a rise in its price which will be permanent or temporary according as the bad policy which dictated the restrictive law may be permanent or temporary. In the first instance profits will be raised; but they will ultimately fall below their former level. From what I have said it will appear that I am of opinion that a permanent rise in the rate of profits on land is never preceded by a rise but by a fall in the price of raw produce; and, though profits may be raised by a rise of the price of produce, they will generally ultimately settle at a rate lower than that from which they started. The converse of this, as it regards low prices of produce, I hold to be equally true. I should be glad to have your sentiments on this point. There may be other causes of high price, which do not at present occur to me.